The Alaska Salmon Program just released their third in-season report for 2026, bumping up their sockeye forecast to 47.6 million fish–that’s a 15% increase from the pre-season estimate. This increase is based on big Port Moller catch indices over the last week, catch & escapement counts from the districts, and even clues from salmon size.
The in-season report also projects earlier than average run-timing for the season. KDLG spoke with associate fisheries professor Curry Cunningham, one of the authors of the report, to learn more.
It's Weather Wednesday! KDLG’s Ryan Berkoski sat down with climate specialist Rick Thoman to get the latest on what’s happening this week out on the water.
Messages to the Fleet
To: Skylar Martinez on the F/V Janet Elaine, Ugashik District.
Message: Happy 27th Birthday, Skylar! We hope the nets are full and the lady crew is kicking butt out there! We miss you like crazy and cannot wait to celebrate when you’re back! Stay safe! We love you!
From: Mom, Dad, Jake and Anna
If you’d like to send a message to the fleet, give us a call at 842-5281 or send an email to fish@kdlg.org.
The Numbers
The baywide catch on Tuesday was 1,532,218 fish, bringing the cumulative catch to 8,154,243 sockeye, while the catch forecast sits at 32.26 million sockeye. Escapement yesterday was 834,331 fish, bringing the run so far to 14,263,570 sockeye. The forecast this year expects a total run of 44.05 million sockeye.
Nushagak
In the Nushagak District, fleets caught 445,682 fish on Tuesday, for a total of 2,896,799 sockeye, with an average drift delivery of 558 sockeye. 72% of harvest was caught by the drift fleet, 23.1% by the set-net fleet, and 4.9% by set-netters in the Igushik. Their forecasted harvest is 13.9 million sockeye.
The total run this season in the Nushagak District is now 7,251,122 fish. Their pre-season forecast is an 18.39 million fish run.
Nushagak River
The Nushagak River sonar counted 217,315 sockeye on Tuesday, for a total of 2,513,391 sockeye up the Nushagak so far.
4,182 Chinook passed the Nushagak River sonar; their total is 22,619 fish so far this season. 977 chum salmon passed the sonar yesterday, for a total of 140,124 fish.
The Nushagak River is estimated to see an 11.1 million fish run this season, and they are within their escapement goal range of 370,000 to 2.6 million fish.
The escapement goal range for king salmon in the Nushagak River is 55,000 to 120,000 fish.
Wood River
The Wood River tower crews counted 135,918 sockeye on Tuesday, making their total count 1,761,258 fish, plus another 37,734 sockeye past the tower as of 6 am this morning.
The Wood River is estimated to see a 6.43 million fish run this season, and they are within their escapement goal range of 700,000 to 2.8 million fish.
Igushik
Igushik crews counted 24,186 fish yesterday, for a total of 79,674 fish, with an additional 4,470 sockeye as of 6am this morning. They have an estimated run of 890,000 fish, and an escapement goal range of 150,000 to 400,000 fish.
Togiak
4,054 fish were caught in Togiak the other day, their total is 8,137 sockeye.
No Togiak escapement counts yet, the district’s tower crews are scheduled to begin around July 4th. The Togiak River’s forecasted inshore sockeye run this season is 530,000 fish, with an escapement goal range of 120,000 to 270,000.
Naknek-Kvichak
210,108 fish were caught in the Naknek-Kvichak District yesterday, their total catch is 749,255 sockeye, with an average drift delivery of 719 sockeye. 28.5% of the catch was caught by Kvichak set-netters, 22.3% by Naknek set-netters, and 49.1% by the Naknek-Kvichak drift fleet. Their projected surplus is 6.2 million sockeye.
The Naknek towers counted 50,592 fish yesterday, for a total of 233,136 fish so far. The Naknek river has an estimated inshore run of 3.9 million sockeye, and the escapement goal range is 800,000 to 2 million.
Kvichak crews counted 170,274 fish for a total of 388,296 sockeye so far. Their estimated run is 3.9 million fish, and their escapement goal range is at 2 million to 10 million.
Alagnak towers have begun counting, and they are at 74,760 fish. The Alagnak River’s forecasted run is about 3.2 million sockeye, with an escapement goal of a minimum of 210,000 sockeye.
The total run for Naknek-Kvichak is at 1,745,447 fish. The pre-season run forecast for the district is around 11 million fish.
Egegik
558,759 fish were caught yesterday in Egegik, with an average drift delivery of 956 sockeye, and their season total catch is 2,719,423 sockeye. 84.2% of harvest was caught by the drift fleet, and 15.8% by the set-net fleet. Their harvest is forecasted at 7.5 million sockeye.
145,914 spawners made it past the counting towers in Egegik yesterday, bringing the season’s total escapement up to 639,666 fish so far. Their escapement goal range is 800,000 to 2 million fish.
Overall, the total run for Egegik sits at 3,459,089 sockeye, and the forecasted inshore run is for 8.9 million fish.
Ugashik
Ugashik crews hauled in 313,615 fish yesterday; their season’s catch is 1,780,629 sockeye, with an average drift delivery of 1,871 sockeye. 90.3% of the catch was caught by the drift fleets, and 9.7% was caught by set-netters. The forecast predicts a surplus of 4.3 million fish for harvest.
15,372 fish were counted passing by the Ugashik towers, for a total escapement of 19,146. Their escapement goal range is 500,000 to 1.4 million sockeye.
The Ugashik total run is 1,799,775 fish so far, the inshore run is forecasted at 5.2 million fish.
Vessel Registrations
As of 9 a.m. this morning, in Egegik, there are 419 permits on 292 boats. That will decrease to 414 permits on 288 boats by Friday, and the number of DBoats will decrease from 127 to 126.
The Ugashik District has 209 permits on 141 boats, which will increase to 241 permits on 162 boats in the next 2 days. DBoats will go up from 68 to 79.
In the Naknek-Kvichak District, there are now 224 permits on 175 boats. That will increase to 291 permits on 222 boats by Friday. DBoats will go from 49 to 69.
In the Nushagak, there are 683 permits on 483 boats. In the next 2 days, that will decrease to 679 permits on 480 boats. DBoats will move down from 200 to 199.
The Togiak District has 21 permits on 21 boats, which will stay the same in the next two days.
In total bay-wide, there are 1,556 active permits on 1,112 boats and 444 DBoats.
Chignik River Weir
At the Chignik River weir, 2,310 sockeye swam through the weir on Tuesday, for a season total of 293,662 sockeye. 1,970 fish were part of the early run, and 340 fish were part of the late run.
Area M
Over in Area M yesterday, fleets harvested over 184,403 sockeye for a season total of 2,698,435.
3 chinook were caught, their total season harvest is 1,304 thus far.
Fleets caught 17 chum on Tuesday, for a total of 486,207.
And no pinks were caught the other day, their harvest is 1,325,697.
No Cohos were caught on Tuesday, their total is 502.
A total of 4,512,145 million salmon across all species have been caught in Area M so far this season.
Port Moller Test Fishery:
Port Moller’s seventh stock composition was released, covering June 28–29. They predict that the “Nushagak and Egegik Districts should build over the coming days before tapering off, while the Naknek-Kvichak District continues to strengthen at least through July 5.”
North Peninsula 0.6%
Ugashik 20.0%
Egegik 17.4%
Naknek 1.7%
Alagnak 8.0%
Kvichak 29.1%
Nushagak 4.6%
Wood 14.5%
Igushik 3.4%
Togiak 0.2%
Kuskokwim 0.6%
Yesterday’s weather was clearer, so Port Moller’s catch index was a bit stronger. They estimate that 50% of catch and escapement will reach the inshore districts around July 2–3, making the total run 41–47 million.
For Port Moller catches on Tuesday, no fish were caught at Stations 14 and 18.
Station 2 caught 1 fish in the small net and 7 fish in the big net. That catch index is 17.
Station 4 caught 15 fish in the small net and 25 fish in the big net. That catch index is 83.
Station 6 caught 53 fish in the small net and 14 fish in the big net. That catch index is 139.
Station 8 caught 51 fish in the small net and 37 fish in the big net. That catch index is 182.
Station 10 caught 56 fish in the small net and 62 fish in the big net. That catch index is 244.
Station 12 caught 1 fish in the small net and 6 fish in the big net. That catch index is 14.
Station 16 caught 0 fish in the small net and 1 fish in the big net. That catch index is 2.
Station 20 caught 0 fish in the small net and 8 fish in the big net. That catch index is 17.
Station 22 caught 1 fish in the small net and 0 fish in the big net. That catch index is 2.
Station 24 caught 0 fish in the small net and 2 fish in the big net. That catch index is 4.
Overall, the average catch index for Tuesday was 59. The average length of fish caught in the small mesh was 507mm, and 528mm for fish in the big mesh.
Get in touch at fish@kdlg.org.
