The Polaris Project is a research initiative led by scientists from universities across the country, funded by the National Science Foundation. It's in its fifth and final year of studying how climate change is impacting social well-being, subsistence lifestyles, and community infrastructure in Arctic communities.
"We know that the Arctic is one of the regions that has been studied the least," said Dr. Guangqing Chi, professor of rural sociology, demography, and health sciences at Penn State, and lead researcher on the Polaris Project.
Chi's team has been conducting research in Dillingham, Port Heiden, Kotzebue, and Chivak, focusing on three key areas: food, migration, and erosion.
According to the National Climate Assessment, Alaska is warming at a rate twice the global average, leading to changes in habitat, receding sea ice, and thawing permafrost.
The assessment indicates that as permafrost thaws and sea ice retreats, coastal bluffs become increasingly vulnerable to erosion.
In Dillingham, Polaris Project researchers established erosion monitoring sites at community-selected locations throughout the city.
They found that in certain areas, the shoreline is eroding at a rate of 5.21 meters per year. In other areas, that number is 10.69 meters per year.
"We also heard that the cave in the hospital area has been falling off, kind of becoming dangerous," Chi said.
Erica Gavenus is a postdoctoral scholar at Penn State and a researcher on the project. She says the data can help the community prepare for potential futures.
"There's been work on the assessment of the rate of erosion and then projecting out how long it will be before it reaches certain points," Gavenus said. "They've learned some of those findings, and have shared those back with the city of Dillingham to help with planning in those ways."
Coastal erosion is already creating a need for community migration and mobility across Alaska.
For example, in Newtok, Alaska, a Yupik village on the Ninglick River, coastal erosion has forced the entire community to relocate – a project that's still underway.
But, Gavenus says moving is not always an option. In other cases, it may be a tough decision.
"I think one of the things that was coming out in some of the research is that, especially in rural Alaska, there's a lot of reasons why people are very committed to staying," Gavenus said. "Whether that's staying in their physical location or staying with that family and broader community and the social networks they have."
The researchers are also examining the impact of climate change on food security.
In partnership with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the Polaris Project conducted a subsistence study in 2021, finding that 97% of households in Dillingham utilized subsistence resources, either by harvesting them themselves or through community sharing.
Gavenus says they observed consistency in the resources being harvested, but the composition has changed, and the amount has decreased by roughly 18 percent over the last four decades.
The study found that harvesting certain wild resources, such as Chinook salmon and large land mammals, is becoming more challenging than in the past.
They also found that food security is higher in Dillingham than in both Alaska and the United States as a whole.
Chi says subsistence practices have an impact on migration.
He says a lack of access to food resources can force people to leave their communities, but food can also drive people back.
"There's also the food and the culture driving people back," Chi said. "You know, not necessarily just the food as food, but it's the culture. You get together with your family, with your friends. So it's really two directions for that."
The Polaris Project will conclude on August 31, with final reports available to the public on their website. But the researchers say their work in the study regions will continue, helping communities adapt as the Arctic continues to change.
