A new app mapping wildfire risk in Bristol Bay is filling in major information gaps - just in time for what officials warn could be a dangerous fire season. The map is the first of its kind in rural Alaska and comes in response to an extreme spike in wildfires in Bristol Bay over the past three years.
The Alaska Venture Fund is a nonprofit that works with regional stakeholders on wildfire preparedness in Bristol Bay. After a severe fire season in 2022, the group hired University of Alaska Anchorage Associate Professor Jennifer Schmidt to create a wildfire risk map as part of a larger effort to build community wildfire protection plans in the region.
Schmidt has developed similar wildfire risk maps in Anchorage and the interior but she says this is the first time the approach has been applied to rural Alaska.
“I built the app for the Bristol Bay area so people can visualize what this wildfire directionality looks like, what the exposure looks like,” Schmidt said. “Now people can zoom in on their houses and they can see if they have a problem, don't have a problem, do they need to take action?”
Schmidt was hired to map the communities of Dillingham and Igiugig. While she was at it, she mapped 24 communities in Bristol Bay and created an app for public use.
It’s the first detailed and community-informed wildfire exposure and hazardous fuels map for Bristol Bay and it provides a new data set and insight for the region. While there is a national wildfire risk map, Schmidt says it is largely inaccurate for much of Alaska.
“The unfortunate thing is it shows that Alaska has low wildfire risks,” Schmidt said. “And so these communities go for grants and they get shot down because these national products do not accurately reflect local conditions.”
She started with mapping vegetation and ranking each type by flammability on a one-hundred-point scale, one being least flammable and a low-risk area, one hundred being most flammable and a high-risk area.
Schmidt says spruce and grass are ranked amongst the highest-risk fuels in Bristol Bay. Unlike most regions she's worked in, grass fuels many Bristol Bay fires, so she adjusted her rankings to match that. She says having community-informed input is essential for accuracy.
“Part of this process is getting this information into the hands of the people,” Schmidt said, “so that they can see the products and then in turn tell me yes this works, no this does not work. Can you add this?”
Once the area was mapped with vegetation type and flammability, she overlaid it with infrastructure like private residences, schools and the hospital. She also collaborated with local stakeholders to identify specific areas that are important, like boat yards and fuel tanks.
“So our maps can tell us places that are most at risk for fire and take the actions to reduce that,” Schmidt said.
This information is becoming more crucial. In the last three years, Bristol Bay has seen a 7,500 percent increase in acres burned, according to a presentation by the Alaska Venture Fund.
Scott Runzo is the Fire Department Coordinator for the City of Dillingham. He says that's partly due to changing environmental conditions in the region.
“There's always been fires. But now these fires are larger because it's dryer, there's more vegetation, and there's more fuel loads,” Runzo said. “So when you have a fire it has the real potential to be a big fire whereas in the past, historically, there would be smaller fires, but not the large size fires we are seeing recently.”
After a low-snow winter, Runzo says the region is bracing for what could be another risky wildfire season this summer. The new map is a key tool in their planning.
And he says it can be used to help community members see if their residences are in a high-risk area. But, he says, taking action to harden the home can happen whether or not a home is in a high-risk area. That includes simple things, like keeping wood piles away from structures and keeping the grass mowed.
Schmidt's final report for the communities of Dillingham and Aleknagik will be presented at the end of the year to inform their community wildfire protection plans. For the 22 other communities included in her map, the information is there to be used if and when they need it.
