When it comes to river breakups, there are two different kinds: thermal and dynamic.
Thermal breakups happen when the river ice is usually thinner and with a low snowpack. After a warm and sunny April, the ice can weaken and more easily break into smaller pieces. That means better drainage and usually, minimal flooding.
That’s what happened last year.
That other kind of breakup – dynamic – that happens when it’s colder. There’s more snow and stronger ice that’s more resistant to fracturing, which means bigger chunks. That can cause ice jams when breakup occurs. This is when more flooding can happen.
Most breakups are a blend of both kinds. Because of this year’s cold snap on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, forecasters are saying this year’s breakup is trending toward the dynamic side due to high snow loads and thick ice. The state Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management says the current forecast indicates above average risk of flooding.
These next few weeks will still play a big role in determining how the ice thaws, but it’s likely some flooding will occur.
So, here are some ways you can prepare.
Number one: Make a plan
“One of the very first things that you really should do is really talk about a good strategy plan with your family, especially for those in your family that need extra help or extra care,” said Jana Drake who works with the state’s Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. She’s also part of the Riverwatch crew who help monitor breakup.
Drake recommends talking with your family about the best way to get out fast if needed and move to a community shelter. A family communication plan, like a sheet of a paper with everybody’s phone numbers on it, can come in handy.
Number two: Do what you can now
Drake recommends building an emergency tool kit stocked with fresh water, food, and batteries. It’s also important to gather all medications together as well as important documents, including passports, insurance and social security cards, tribal IDs and driver’s licenses.
Drake recommends moving all vehicles and boats to higher ground prior to breakup. If you can, put other household valuables in water-safe containers.
If you have pets, it’s a good idea to prepare some of their food to grab if you need to move to higher ground.
Number three: Stay updated
Water is the most dangerous element, Drake explained.
“Water, it don't play,” Drake explained. “If a fire comes around, we can put water and it's out. Water — we don't get those privileges. It's going to do what it wants to do, and we have to wait until it is absorbed or retreats.”
It’s important to stay updated on breakup forecasts and stay ahead of the flooding as much as possible. You can sign up for emailed breakup updates via daily situation reports issued by the state’s emergency management department. You can also check the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center’s (APRFC) updated map. APRFC also facilitates weekly call-in meetings for both the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers leading up to breakup, where community members can call in and give on-the-ground ice observations.
Once breakup begins on the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers, you can tune into daily Coffee shows on KYUK at 8:40 in the morning and its rebroadcast at 12:30 to get the most updated information from the River Watch team.
Faith Clyde, who works with the Alaska State Emergency Operations Center, said another impact of the cold winter has been shore ice that’s held fast to coastal communities. Their partners at the National Weather Service report it's been a long time since the shore ice has stuck around through breakup.
“So what they're expecting is that coastal communities along the mouth of the Kuskokwim, and the mouth of the Yukon, those coastal communities may see flooding in ways that it is a result of the shore ice still holding fast as breakup reaches the ocean,” Clyde said.
Some of those communities, and other villages at risk, include those impacted by Halong.
“There’s a lot of cross-planning and a lot of anticipation that some of the communities that were impacted by Halong will also see impacts from River Watch [breakup],” Clyde said. “No one has a crystal ball and can't quite forecast that, but at least everybody is aware and we're working on trying to mitigate what we can.”
She said her department is on heightened awareness for breakup events, and more staff are involved this year across organizations involved in River Watch. According to Drake, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Alaska Food Bank, American Red Cross, and Salvation Army will all be on speed dial as breakup progresses.
