The start of spring was cooler for the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta. March was cooler than normal. Not dramatically cooler, but cool enough for a comparatively late river breakup.
“This is kind of part of it, the natural variability. Although it's been cool, it's nowhere near record cool for this time of year, really, anywhere in Alaska,” said Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Climate Specialist Rick Thoman.
Even though the summer solstice is here, Thoman said that the Y-K Delta, like much of Southern and Southwest Alaska, doesn’t look to be launching into a glorious start to summer. It’s been cloudy and gray, with some rainfall.
“Interestingly enough, it's really all in the daytime temperatures that's really making it feel so cool. Daytime temperatures running several degrees below normal; we look at the overnight low temperatures, they're actually near or even a little bit above normal," Thoman said. "And that's all due to the very high cloud cover that we've had over the last couple of weeks.”
On June 1, some places in the Y-K Delta even saw snow, which is not normal.
"It's not unknown, but again, doesn't happen very often, especially in recent years. And so really kind of a backwards start to the season. And really quite a dramatic difference from what we saw last year at this time," Thoman said.
Rainfall through the first two weeks of the month in the region is actually running very close to normal, according to Thoman. There have been several consistent rainy days, adding up to near-normal overall rainfall. But May was a particularly wet month for the state. In fact, Thoman said that it was one of the top five wettest in the last century.
“Now there are, of course, were some areas that did not get very much precipitation, especially in the upper Kuskokwim Valley. So the upper river of McGrath was pretty dry. And also parts of the Palmer-Wasilla area were also quite dry, but otherwise, pretty wet month around the state into June. The cool weather that we've had in Southwest Alaska that's been widespread across the state. Most of Alaska has had a chilly start to June,” Thoman said.
Thoman is not certain how these conditions will impact fish and wildlife, but he will keep an eye on it.
“You know, those tend to respond to things over longer timescales than just a few months. And so we'll have to see ocean temperatures in the Bering Sea, especially near the Alaska coast, are significantly cooler than normal and significantly cooler than many recent years. And so, generally, our fish, of course, like that cold water, so we'll have to see how that works out. But it is good that we see those cold waters persisting into June here now,” Thoman said.
On June 8, NOAA confirmed the arrival ofEl Niño. Thoman said that it will take some time for the warm waters in the equatorial Pacific to start to influence the atmosphere. So he doesn’t expect to see any influence from El Niño or Alaska weather until the autumn season.
Thoman is watching Kuskokwim River water levels too.
“So with the with the very high snowpack that we had in the upper Kusko drainage, water levels have stayed high but are gradually coming down as we melt out more of that higher elevation snow. Of course, with the cooler weather this month we’re kind of dragging out that melt season. So that's that'll keep water levels good. So certainly good for navigation up and down the rivers at this point,” Thoman said.
Cooler temperatures and rainfall are good news since it is fire season. Thoman said that there’s a very dramatic difference in the wildfire season from last year. So far, in Alaska, fewer than 1,000 acres have burned. And that is the slowest start to the wildfire season going back more than three decades.
“So through the 14th of June, for any year for which we have daily estimates of wildfire acreage. So that's back 31 years, and this is the lowest area burn to this point in the season,” Thoman said.
But that could change very rapidly, Thoman warned.
“If we get a few warm, dry days, and some thunderstorms that can change. But so far, it's been a very slow season. And, of course, last year at this time was very, very different. It was one of the highest acreages burned to this point in the season. And a lot of that acreage was, of course, in Southwest Alaska; not so this year.”
