STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
How do voters view all of this? We've called Sarah Longwell, who is a political consultant and pollster and publisher of the conservative website The Bulwark. Good morning.
SARAH LONGWELL: Good morning.
INSKEEP: OK. As I understand it, you had a focus group last night with some swing voters - people who voted for Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. What was it like, and what did you hear?
LONGWELL: Well, here's the most remarkable thing about this story, which is that everybody had organically heard about it. One of the things that - when it comes to voters and big news stories, they're not always connected.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
LONGWELL: It might be something we're talking about in Washington, but the voters - it hasn't really broken through to them. In both the cases of the shooting of Renee Good and of Alex Pretti, everybody had heard about it. Everybody had seen the videos. And the slight difference, 'cause we've been talking to voters over the last three weeks since the shooting of Renee Good - there was much more of a sense after Renee Good's shooting that people said, you know, bad things happen. It's a tragedy, but she shouldn't have been parked there, and maybe she was going to hit him with her car. The Alex Pretti shooting - there's no ambiguity with voters. They are fed up with ICE's tactics. They believe that they voted for Trump to get dangerous criminals off the streets, not to shoot Americans. And so not only had they seen it, but they were dramatically against it.
INSKEEP: I want to explain for people who don't follow this every day. When we say focus group, this is a small group of people in a room or on a Zoom call or - just talking together. But a small group of people in all walks of life, and you hear their kind of in-depth thoughts and conversations. Is that how this went?
LONGWELL: That's right. And when you have polling, you can tell from the polling that the social impact of ICE's actions has led to a major backlash in public opinion. When we do a focus group, we're trying to figure out why. What is it about what's happening that is causing that movement? And in this case, it is the disconnect between what people see as the overzealous actions of ICE - the fact that there are all these troops on the streets, that they're creating chaos, that they're shooting Americans - versus what people wanted when they voted for Trump, which was a secure border and dangerous criminals deported.
INSKEEP: Are there two parts to the failure among the - as perceived by the voters here? One being the actual killing, which people could see for themselves, and the other thing being the obviously false statements that the U.S. government made in our name with our tax dollars.
LONGWELL: You know, the - I would say voters are aware that there is some disconnect, although that tends to not be the locus of their outrage. The locus of their outrage is that they have seen the video. They can tell you chapter and verse, scene by scene, what the ICE agents did wrong. And I think that has captivated people in a way that's slightly different from the way people who follow the news much more closely might understand that - the disconnect between sort of the administration, the story they told, versus what we actually saw on the ground and how we all know that the administration is lying.
INSKEEP: Now, as we heard from Franco Ordoñez, the White House has changed course in the last day in certain ways. They stopped calling the victim a terrorist without actually admitting a mistake. They are making this personnel change in Minnesota. We don't know how long this will last. We know from past experience the president has a tendency after a day or two to revert to his original talking points, but they did make a change here. Is there a connection between that change and public opinion, do you think?
LONGWELL: I do. I think that one of the reasons that Republicans often simply just back Trump is because they think that's what the public is demanding of them. In this case, it is loud and clear to people that the public is fed up with having these troops in the streets, with seeing Americans get shot. And the public opinion is very much turning against them on an issue that is supposed to be one of Trump's best issues, and I think that is causing Republicans to get spooked.
INSKEEP: Oh. Let's talk about that aspect of this. When you say it's supposed to be one of Trump's best issues, it has been. It's one where he has majority support. Does he still have majority support, as far as you can tell?
LONGWELL: He does not. And I will say there is a slight difference between the border - voters - they think, yes, we want the border secure. And so he still does all right when it comes to the actual securing of the border. Where he is underwater now is on ICE, is on Border Patrol, is on the actions of deportations. People - it - the polling on that has completely flipped. He is now well underwater on this issue. And now we are getting into the territory not just of the public doesn't approve, but there is an active backlash against your administration on this point.
INSKEEP: Briefly, what are voters telling you about the economy, which Trump would rather be talking about, apparently?
LONGWELL: Well, I don't know why he'd rather be talking about it because I don't think that there's anything that voters are more angry about than the state of the economy. If they - if Trump had one job for voters, it was to lower costs, and they do not feel like he's doing it.
INSKEEP: Sarah Longwell is publisher of The Bulwark and a political consultant and pollster. Thanks for your insights. It's always really appreciated.
LONGWELL: Thanks so much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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