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2016 forecast names Kvichak as largest run

Hannah Colton/KDLG

Fish and Game’s 2016 Bristol Bay sockeye forecast includes 23 million fish expected to return to the Naknek-Kvichak District, which usually sees the largest catch of Bristol Bay’s fishing districts. 

If the Naknek-Kvichak runs come in as forecast, there’ll be about 10 million fewer fish in the district in 2016 than there were last summer --- but the district will still see the largest return of any of Bristol Bay's five fishing districts.

Area Management Biologist Travis Elison said that smaller number isn’t a surprise.

“It’s kind of a nice number to look at. Big, but not too scary big, so that should make things straightforward," Elison said. "And the next question is will they be early, late or on time. And that’s where things really start getting more difficult for management.”

Of course, the forecast does not include predictions for run timing, which proved to be the trickiest part of managing the 2015 run.

Fish and Game's expects a possible harvest of 12 million reds, down a bit from the 16 million caught in the district last year.

The largest component of the total run is 13 million sockeye expected back to the Kvichak River; in fact the Kvichak is expected to have the biggest run in the bay again, Elison said.

"It’d be the third year in a row for the Kvichak to have a big run if it comes in as forecast," he said.

With 6 million reds forecast back to the Alagnak, and about 5 million reds to the Naknek, Elison said meeting escapement goals shouldn’t be a problem in the district.

“Oh yeah, we should have plenty of escapement there, no concerns at all on that," Elison said.

The forecast is just a ballpark however. In 2015, the district came in about 14 percent above its preseason forecast, and of course, the fish were late.

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